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Harnessing AI for inclusive growth

Blog post Published on 29/09/2025
By Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Emmanuelle Ganne and Ankai Xu 

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping how economies produce, trade and grow. The World Trade Report 2025, launched at the WTO Public Forum on 17 September, examines the profound ways in which AI could transform global trade. The report's findings are clear: AI has the potential to accelerate growth and expand trade opportunities, but the extent to which these benefits are shared across and within economies will depend on the choices policymakers make today. 

Harnessing AI for inclusive growth

  •  The “40 by 40” effect

In the World Trade Report 2025, WTO economists look into the potential of AI to expand global trade based on various scenarios of technological catch-up between economies (see below). Their findings suggest that AI could increase global trade by between 34 and 37 per cent (see Figure 1), meaning that by 2040, the value of trade could be nearly 40 per cent higher than in a world without AI-driven advances. This “40 by 40” effect would stem from three powerful forces working together: lower trade costs due to AI-related efficiency gains, the rapid growth of tradable AI services, and stronger AI-driven productivity gains in sectors most integrated into international trade.

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